Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcb0…c865 sports 152 markets active 30d ago coverage 325d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 324d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$126,644 (+15%) realized +$126,644 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate49%75W / 77L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$5,481per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 325d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$10,016
other 18% +$27,978
politics 7% +$19,303
world 2% +$17,580
economics 1% +$317
tech 0% −$820
crypto 0% +$854
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 -10.1% -18.7% 67% 33% -13.9%
all 152 +1.9% -7.8% 49% 34% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 34% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 23% -12.8%
15% -24.7% 17% -21.2%
20% -32.1% 12% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$8,700) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,248 vs −$1,492 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized+$126,644
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses75 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)152 / 152
History coverage325d ⚠
Avg bet$5,481
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 152 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $316 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $155 −$155 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic May 20 $177 +$123 +70%
Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 60 and 70 mi Jan 23 $1,966 +$34 +2%
League of Legends: Anyone's Legend vs. Top Esports Jan 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18? Jan 23 $31 −$31 -100%
World Series of Poker – American winner? Jan 23 $2,443 −$285 -12%
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31? Jan 23 $569 −$448 -79%
Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 50 and 60 mi Jan 23 $1,089 +$11 +1%
Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get less than 10 million Jan 23 $1,006 +$3 +0%
Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 20 and 30 mi Jan 23 $4,404 +$206 +5%
League of Legends: KT Rolster Challengers vs. T1 Academy Jan 23 $1,689 −$892 -53%
Will Adam Hendrix win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? Jan 23 $9,018 −$436 -5%
League of Legends: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs. ThunderTalk Gaming Jan 23 $5,423 +$763 +14%
League of Legends: EDward Gaming vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas Jan 23 $4,842 +$484 +10%
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31? Jan 23 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August? Jan 23 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31? Jan 23 $1,140 −$1,140 -100%
League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. G2 Jan 23 $20,984 −$1,731 -8%
League of Legends: T1 vs. Gen.G Jan 23 $11,435 −$361 -3%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18? Jan 23 $7 −$7 -100%
League of Legends: Weibo Gaming vs. Top Esports Jan 23 $1,682 −$1,682 -100%
League of Legends: DRX vs. Dplus KIA Jan 23 $27,160 +$4,309 +16%
League of Legends: LNG Esports vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas Jan 23 $4,630 +$530 +11%
League of Legends: Anyone's Legend vs. Team WE Jan 23 $11,258 −$2,268 -20%
League of Legends: T1 vs. AG.AL Jan 23 $5,153 +$1,137 +22%
League of Legends: ThunderTalk Gaming vs. LNG Esports Jan 23 $1,844 −$1,844 -100%
League of Legends: Weibo Gaming vs. FunPlus Phoenix Jan 23 $2,448 −$1,428 -58%
League of Legends: JD Gaming vs. Top Esports Jan 23 $7,233 −$2,387 -33%
Will Luka Bojovic win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? Jan 23 $7,566 +$412 +5%
League of Legends: Gen.G vs. T1 Jan 23 $12,647 −$3,126 -25%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? Jan 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? Jan 23 $1,349 −$1,349 -100%
League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. JD Gaming Jan 23 $445 −$445 -100%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? Jan 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 10 and 20 mi Jan 23 $8,831 −$1,916 -22%
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.5-3.75 in June? Jan 23 $669 −$669 -100%
League of Legends: Anyone's Legend vs. Bilibili Gaming Jan 23 $12,518 −$5,564 -44%
Will Leo Margets win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? Jan 23 $3,640 −$1,640 -45%
League of Legends: CTBC Flying Oyster vs. GAM Jan 23 $1,766 −$1,766 -100%
League of Legends: Top Esports vs. Team WE Jan 23 $19,553 −$6,315 -32%
League of Legends: Cloud9 vs. FURIA Jan 23 $4,014 −$4,014 -100%
League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. OKSavingsBank BRION Jan 23 $11,900 +$1,164 +10%
League of Legends: BNK FEARX vs. DN Freecs Jan 23 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
League of Legends: DRX vs. OKSavingsBank BRION Jan 23 $6,509 −$414 -6%
League of Legends: Ultra Prime vs. ThunderTalk Gaming Jan 23 $10,729 −$1,129 -10%
Will Braxton Dunaway win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? Jan 23 $1,728 −$342 -20%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez qualify for Bolivia’s presidential runoff? Jan 23 $990 −$990 -100%
League of Legends: Nongshim Red Force vs. T1 Jan 23 $423 −$423 -100%
Will John Wasnock win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? Jan 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 100¢ $316 29d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 31¢ $155 39d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 59¢ $177 58d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? BUY Yes 93¢ $838 228d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? BUY Yes 93¢ $63 228d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? BUY Yes 93¢ $58 228d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? BUY Yes 93¢ $45 228d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? BUY Yes 93¢ $31 228d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? BUY Yes 93¢ $38 228d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 228d
Will the government shutdown end November 12? BUY No 100¢ $9,065 228d
Will the government shutdown end November 12? BUY No 100¢ $199 228d
Will the government shutdown end November 12? BUY No 100¢ $161 228d
Will the government shutdown end November 12? BUY No 100¢ $502 228d
Will the government shutdown end November 12? BUY No 100¢ $23 228d
Will the government shutdown end November 12? BUY No 100¢ $16,131 228d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $27,245 228d
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $610 234d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 47¢ $1,958 234d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 47¢ $2,859 234d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 47¢ $380 234d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 47¢ $44 234d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 47¢ $487 234d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 47¢ $6 234d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 234d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 47¢ $22 234d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 47¢ $923 234d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 47¢ $17 234d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 234d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 47¢ $139 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.00 · official $316.00 (match) · 3500 history records