Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfcae…554b other 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 250L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$41
sports 24% −$18
politics 9% −$10
culture 6% −$8
economics 6% −$6
world 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$4
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 261 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)261 / 261
History coverage138d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 261 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $684 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $264 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $637 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $355 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 13 $304 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $500 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $216 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $288 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $138 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $372 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $381 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $285 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $214 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $335 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $300 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $318 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $508 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $138 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $138 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 31 $230 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 28 $767 −$2 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 28 $195 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 26 $147 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $158 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 3h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 4h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 5h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 16h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 17h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 20h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 22h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $61 23h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $61 24h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 28h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 30h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 35h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 36h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 38h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 40h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 41h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 42h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 47h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1391 history records