Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:47:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FC 0xfcab…3376 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$453 (-14%) realized −$21 · open −$432
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2,751now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 92% −$388
other 3% +$14
world 3% −$41
sports 1% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-42.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +92.3% +74.0% 100% 100% +74.0%
≤30d 3 -35.9% -42.0% 33% 33% -43.9%
≤90d 3 -35.9% -42.0% 33% 33% -43.9%
all 3 -35.9% -42.0% 33% 33% -43.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.0% 33% -43.9%
10% -47.6% 33% -49.3%
15% -52.6% 33% -54.2%
20% -57.3% 33% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$2,751
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$432
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)3 / 12
History coverage38d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2,853 $2,586 −$267 (-9%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes $157 $37 −$121 (-77%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $24 +$2 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? No 11¢ $60 $20 −$40 (-66%)
Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-16%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 +$17 +92%
Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $8 −$8 -99%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,750.55 · official $2,750.55 (match) · 30 history records