Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfca2…0d67 other 104 markets active 6d ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$4
politics 25% −$3
sports 23% −$11
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 73 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 104 -2.6% -11.9% 11% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 7% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 5% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 93
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage122d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 20 $167 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $81 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $168 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $68 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $266 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $165 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $153 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $175 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $72 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $333 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $93 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $161 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $84 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $156 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $94 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $95 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 08 $183 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 08 $97 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $151 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $98 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $83 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $88 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 04 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 04 $81 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $169 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $163 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $79 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 01 $73 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 26d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 27d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $74 36d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $81 56d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $81 56d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 56d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 56d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $69 56d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $69 57d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 57d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 57d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $78 57d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $78 57d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $93 58d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $93 58d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $80 58d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $80 58d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $75 58d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $75 58d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 59d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 59d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 59d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 60d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $86 60d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $86 60d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $74 60d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $74 60d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $89 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 295 history records