Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:40:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FC 0xfca0…671f other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$13 (+5%) realized +$14 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$61per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+10.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+21.9%	+10.2%	100%	50%	+0.7%
≤30d	2	+21.9%	+10.2%	100%	50%	+0.7%
≤90d	2	+21.9%	+10.2%	100%	50%	+0.7%
all	2	+21.9%	+10.2%	100%	50%	+0.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+10.2%	50%	+0.7%
10%	-0.3%	50%	-8.9%
15%	-9.9%	50%	-17.7%
20%	-18.8%	0%	-25.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +22% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$123

Realized+$14

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$61

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	92¢	92¢	$114	$113	−$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$20	+$8	+38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$100	+$6	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$34	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$80	9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	72¢	$20	9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$100	19h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.48 · official $123.48 (match) · 7 history records