Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc9b…5803 crypto 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (191 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$48 (-34%) realized −$19 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day190.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$48
other 15% −$6
finance 7% −$5
politics 3% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (191 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-62.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -58.6% -62.6% 0% 0% -78.5%
≤30d 24 -58.6% -62.6% 0% 0% -78.5%
≤90d 24 -58.6% -62.6% 0% 0% -78.5%
all 24 -58.6% -62.6% 0% 0% -78.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover190.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -62.6% 0% -78.5%
10% ← realistic here -66.2% 0% -80.5%
15% -69.4% 0% -82.4%
20% -72.4% 0% -84.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Open positions28
Markets (closed)24 / 52
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day190.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 28? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 28? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+300%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Lana – Social Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+800%)
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 28? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Armenian Revolutionary Federation win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Progressive Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Dignity Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $0 $0 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $5 −$3 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 27? Jun 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 27? Jun 25 $2 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 26? Jun 24 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $0 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24? Jun 23 $1 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 51m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 51m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.71 · official $52.71 (match) · 576 history records