Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc96…1a3f sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-8%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$41
other 20% +$19
crypto 15% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 36% -19.0%
≤30d 11 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 36% -19.0%
≤90d 11 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 36% -19.0%
all 11 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 36% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 36% -19.0%
10% -31.0% 36% -26.7%
15% -37.7% 36% -33.8%
20% -43.8% 18% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$28 +139%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 −$28 -69%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$13 +44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$10 -19%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 +$26 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $41 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $16 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 5h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $49 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $20 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $0 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 16¢ $1 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 16¢ $10 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 16¢ $1 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 14h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 18h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 29h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 72¢ $44 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $15 43h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $20 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $19 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $40 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $41 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 92¢ $86 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $60 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.58 · official $39.58 (match) · 27 history records