Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FC 0xfc96…2d87 crypto 2098 markets active 6d ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$522 (-4%) realized −$522 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%1072W / 596L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day121.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,602
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 237 -54.4% -58.7% 25% 25% -58.5%
≤30d 1668 +22.1% +10.5% 64% 64% +11.1%
≤90d 1668 +22.1% +10.5% 64% 64% +11.1%
all 1668 +22.1% +10.5% 64% 64% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.5% 64% +11.1%
10% ← realistic here -0.1% 64% +0.5%
15% -9.8% 63% -9.2%
20% -18.6% 61% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$522
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1072 / 596
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1668 / 2098
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day121.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1668 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records