Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FC 0xfc91…31eb world 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,017 (+4%) realized +$1,458 · open +$1,559
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate78%28W / 8L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$1,039per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$28,699now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$977
14 days+$285
30 days+$931
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$827
economics 21% +$1,591
other 15% −$665
tech 8% +$271
sports 2% +$159
politics 2% +$296
crypto 2% −$216
finance 1% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +14.9% +4.0% 67% 67% -17.4%
≤30d 15 +23.7% +11.9% 73% 53% -5.6%
≤90d 34 +14.4% +3.5% 76% 35% -8.1%
all 36 +13.9% +3.1% 78% 33% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 33% -8.0%
10% -6.8% 28% -16.8%
15% -15.8% 22% -24.9%
20% -24.1% 19% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$782 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$28,699
Realized+$1,458
Unrealized+$1,559
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses28 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions31
Markets (closed)36 / 67
History coverage108d
Avg bet$1,039
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 55¢ 69¢ $5,001 $6,302 +$1,302 (+26%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 88¢ $3,922 $4,773 +$851 (+22%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 74¢ 86¢ $1,970 $2,277 +$307 (+16%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $2,100 $2,210 +$110 (+5%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $1,715 $1,685 −$30 (-2%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 66¢ 84¢ $1,185 $1,513 +$328 (+28%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 56¢ $1,200 $1,442 +$242 (+20%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 56¢ 48¢ $1,415 $1,192 −$223 (-16%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 71¢ 94¢ $787 $1,039 +$252 (+32%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $797 $674 −$124 (-16%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $806 $645 −$161 (-20%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 80¢ 78¢ $600 $584 −$16 (-3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $450 $473 +$23 (+5%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 59¢ 53¢ $497 $449 −$48 (-10%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $398 $411 +$13 (+3%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes 29¢ 13¢ $694 $306 −$388 (-56%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 98¢ 95¢ $300 $293 −$7 (-2%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $3,766 −$3,766 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $500 +$611 +122%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,015 +$454 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $827 −$404 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,400 +$410 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $2,674 +$1,717 +64%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $345 +$819 +238%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $798 +$442 +55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2,300 −$132 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 02 $131 −$131 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $1,500 +$800 +53%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 27 $2,440 +$21 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $200 +$37 +18%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 21 $480 +$20 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 21 $2,300 +$31 +1%
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? May 16 $300 −$3 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 16 $3,002 +$55 +2%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? May 16 $699 +$547 +78%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? Apr 29 $500 +$30 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 29 $2,500 +$72 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $1,100 +$21 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 29 $2,000 +$98 +5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 15 $796 −$225 -28%
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2 Apr 14 $299 +$12 +4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 14 $600 +$263 +44%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $50 +$3 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $80 +$3 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $150 +$6 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $225 +$25 +11%
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31? Apr 01 $399 +$22 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $274 +$318 +116%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 22 $275 −$96 -35%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $250 +$10 +4%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 09 $200 +$14 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 72¢ $200 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $308 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $307 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $316 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $460 3h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $1,305 3h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,714 3h
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $201 32h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $200 32h
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $398 32h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $91 32h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $119 32h
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? BUY Yes $102 4d
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? BUY Yes $89 4d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $268 4d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY No 59¢ $505 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $500 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,200 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes $84 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes $339 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 81¢ $2,015 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1,810 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $1,500 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $2,772 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $4,391 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $300 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,699.16 · official $28,699.81 (match) · 262 history records