Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc90…db14 crypto 1206 markets active 0h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,640 (-4%) realized −$2,640 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%602W / 604L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$75
14 days−$981
30 days−$1,337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -6.2% -15.2% 50% 38% -19.7%
≤30d 134 -24.2% -31.5% 42% 37% -31.0%
≤90d 484 -18.7% -26.4% 49% 42% -21.1%
all 1206 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 42% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 42% -15.7%
10% -28.7% 32% -23.7%
15% -35.6% 23% -31.1%
20% -41.9% 17% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$29 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,640
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses602 / 604
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1206 / 1206
History coverage162d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1206 Trades
no open positions (450 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$21 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$30 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$39 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$59 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$23 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$99 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$74 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$78 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $53 +$31 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $106 −$23 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $104 +$69 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $106 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $53 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $53 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$28 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$16 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$39 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $32 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $32 +$33 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$40 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 09 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 09 $32 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$8 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $32 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $37 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $32 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $31 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $43 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $31 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $70 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $31 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $177 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $100 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2856 history records