Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FC 0xfc8f…6fe7 sports 237 markets active 2d ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$691 (+11%) realized +$691 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate76%180W / 57L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$14
14 days+$29
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$679
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -7.1% -15.9% 76% 38% -10.4%
≤30d 135 -15.3% -23.3% 67% 41% -12.7%
≤90d 194 -5.3% -14.3% 76% 46% +0.4%
all 237 -6.4% -15.4% 76% 47% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 47% +0.3%
10% -23.5% 21% -9.3%
15% -30.9% 11% -18.1%
20% -37.6% 7% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$691
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses180 / 57
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)237 / 237
History coverage161d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 237 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $17 +$13 +73%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $90 +$2 +2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $84 +$15 +18%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $73 +$7 +10%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $23 +$2 +10%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $72 +$23 +31%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$4 +17%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $43 +$4 +9%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $10 +$10 +109%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $28 +$2 +7%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $27 +$3 +9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $79 +$1 +1%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$1 -3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $60 −$11 -17%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $7 +$1 +9%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $18 +$2 +13%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $18 +$2 +11%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $121 +$9 +7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $62 +$8 +14%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $9 +$1 +12%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $56 +$4 +8%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $54 +$6 +11%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $18 +$2 +12%
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $18 +$2 +8%
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $21 +$6 +28%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $17 +$3 +15%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $17 +$3 +14%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $9 +$1 +7%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $19 +$1 +3%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $19 +$1 +4%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $24 +$2 +6%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $102 +$9 +8%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $19 +$11 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 57¢ $17 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 58¢ $6 40h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 92¢ $92 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 90¢ $90 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $100 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 90¢ $45 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 85¢ $34 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 54¢ $5 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $80 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 93¢ $21 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 93¢ $0 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 93¢ $7 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 3¢ $0 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 75¢ $38 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 77¢ $8 2d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 99¢ $5 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 98¢ $49 2d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 89¢ $18 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 74¢ $7 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 71¢ $14 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 93¢ $23 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $15 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 67¢ $34 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $30 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $40 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 90¢ $18 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 92¢ $18 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 71¢ $7 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 95¢ $38 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 70¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 691 history records