Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

FC 0xfc8f…fc38 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$6 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate78%7W / 2L

Drawdown99%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+9.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+20.6%	+9.1%	78%	33%	-8.2%
≤30d	9	+20.6%	+9.1%	78%	33%	-8.2%
≤90d	9	+20.6%	+9.1%	78%	33%	-8.2%
all	9	+20.6%	+9.1%	78%	33%	-8.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+9.1%	33%	-8.2%
10%	-1.3%	22%	-17.0%
15%	-10.8%	11%	-25.0%
20%	-19.6%	11%	-32.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

57% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +21% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$6

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)78%

Wins / losses7 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)9 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown99%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 9 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5	Jun 18	$12	+$2	+20%
Spread: Panama (-1.5)	Jun 18	$7	$0	+0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$126	+$1	+1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$32	−$5	-15%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime?	Jun 17	$1	$0	+34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$90	+$3	+3%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$1	+$2	+236%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$1	$0	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	99¢	$126	1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5)	BUY Ghana	100¢	$7	1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5	BUY Over	97¢	$11	1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5	BUY Over	32¢	$1	1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	32¢	$1	2h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	27¢	$27	2h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	30¢	$31	2h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	44¢	$1	2h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	74¢	$1	5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3	7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$1	8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	97¢	$90	8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	95¢	$1	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records