Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
FC 0xfc8d…605a other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+7%) realized −$1 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$20
other 46% +$6
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.0% +0.4% 67% 67% +19.9%
≤30d 3 +11.0% +0.4% 67% 67% +19.9%
≤90d 3 +11.0% +0.4% 67% 67% +19.9%
all 3 +11.0% +0.4% 67% 67% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 67% +19.9%
10% ← realistic here -9.2% 33% +8.4%
15% -18.0% 33% -2.0%
20% -26.0% 0% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×8.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.97 per $1 lost it wins $16.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)3 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 42¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+159%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$20 +39%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Jun 15 $5 −$1 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.73 · official $51.73 (match) · 22 history records