Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc8c…1a5b world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$5
sports 19% $0
politics 13% $0
other 13% +$3
culture 6% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 -0.5% -9.9% 25% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 12 -0.5% -9.9% 25% 0% -10.6%
all 35 +2.3% -7.4% 40% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 3% -9.7%
10% -16.3% 3% -18.3%
15% -24.4% 3% -26.2%
20% -31.8% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage290d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $44 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $22 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $92 −$5 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $31 +$1 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $3 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 19 $3 +$2 +75%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 18 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $2 $0 +8%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 39¢ $31 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 39¢ $12 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 39¢ $44 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $22 25h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $22 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $8 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $36 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $40 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $40 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $40 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $12 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $27 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $39 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $39 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $38 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $6 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $32 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $31 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 13d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 14d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.13 · official $43.14 (match) · 116 history records