Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc8b…0ae9 politics 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$12
other 26% +$35
sports 23% −$18
crypto 10% −$7
economics 4% −$1
culture 4% −$12
tech 2% −$3
finance 1% −$4
world 1% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -1.0% -10.5% 11% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 61 -1.0% -10.4% 7% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 111 -0.6% -10.0% 14% 1% -10.0%
all 135 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 1% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 116
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage107d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $96 −$2 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $98 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 17 $63 −$2 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $149 −$3 -2%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 16 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $28 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $55 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $159 +$1 +0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $242 −$2 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $363 −$2 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 10 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $42 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $291 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $58 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $108 −$2 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 06 $65 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $58 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $53 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $116 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $362 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 03 $151 −$9 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $54 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 02 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $162 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $45 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $102 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $59 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $305 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $328 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $54 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $55 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $41 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $32 6h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $10 7h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 7h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $53 15h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $57 16h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $57 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 89¢ $61 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 91¢ $63 30h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $55 31h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $56 38h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $59 39h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $60 47h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 96¢ $48 47h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $63 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $63 2d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $49 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $50 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $51 3d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $28 3d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $28 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $40 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $55 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $46 4d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $9 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $53 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.37 · official $55.37 (match) · 540 history records