Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc88…43cc crypto 342 markets active 0h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8,718 (+1%) realized +$8,718 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate89%304W / 36L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$1,911per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,048
7 days−$777
14 days−$556
30 days−$1,134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$10,941
other 3% −$2,793
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.4% -16.2% 83% 17% -18.8%
≤30d 109 -1.8% -11.1% 90% 16% -10.3%
≤90d 109 -1.8% -11.1% 90% 16% -10.3%
all 340 +0.7% -8.9% 89% 25% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 25% -8.3%
10% -17.6% 9% -17.1%
15% -25.6% 3% -25.1%
20% -32.9% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$2,600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$1,483 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized+$8,718
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses304 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)340 / 342
History coverage235d
Avg bet$1,911
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $233 $232 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? No 82¢ 83¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $725 +$13 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,564 −$1,124 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,504 +$63 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $1,282 +$204 +16%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $1,249 +$36 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,218 +$31 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $1,182 +$33 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,490 −$159 -6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $1,221 +$78 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $1,199 +$27 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $1,212 +$25 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $806 +$142 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $248 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $783 +$68 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $66 +$4 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $938 +$47 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $403 +$58 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $465 +$15 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $582 +$95 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,437 +$63 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 09 $401 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 09 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 09 $601 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $601 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $1,202 +$33 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $601 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $1,202 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $402 +$30 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $601 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $1,203 +$37 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 08 $214 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $805 +$80 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 08 $1,202 +$29 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,336 +$26 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 08 $601 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 08 $602 +$29 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,254 +$43 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $601 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 07 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 07 $403 +$45 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 07 $802 +$30 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $402 +$31 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 07 $601 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $603 +$49 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 05 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 05 $601 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 05 $804 +$66 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 04 $801 +$8 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? BUY No 82¢ $5 29m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $150 36m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $51 38m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $32 39m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $738 40m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $710 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 68¢ $726 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,063 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 26¢ $440 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 86¢ $60 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 86¢ $18 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 86¢ $248 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 86¢ $247 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 86¢ $8 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 86¢ $520 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 86¢ $464 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,504 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 87¢ $189 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 87¢ $904 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 85¢ $110 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 79¢ $79 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 97¢ $405 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 97¢ $844 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $323 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $895 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $106 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $1,076 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $888 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $266 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.75 · official $236.75 (match) · 2193 history records