Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FC 0xfc87…9eb9 sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$580 (-20%) realized −$763 · open +$183
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$860now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$10
14 days−$196
30 days−$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$7
sports 28% −$343
politics 24% −$154
other 5% −$20
crypto 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.1% -12.3% 75% 75% +5.7%
≤30d 16 -18.0% -25.8% 62% 38% -45.4%
≤90d 56 -23.4% -30.7% 45% 34% -43.9%
all 56 -23.4% -30.7% 45% 34% -43.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 34% -43.9%
10% -37.4% 29% -49.2%
15% -43.4% 23% -54.2%
20% -49.0% 21% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$31 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$860
Realized−$763
Unrealized+$183
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 31
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions8
Markets (closed)56 / 64
History coverage47d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 82¢ 92¢ $265 $300 +$35 (+13%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 46¢ 86¢ $111 $209 +$98 (+89%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $153 $157 +$4 (+3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 33¢ 61¢ $57 $107 +$50 (+87%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 63¢ $48 $43 −$5 (-11%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+14%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 81¢ 96¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+19%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 24¢ 4¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $6 +$2 +42%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $42 +$14 +34%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $199 −$122 -62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $13 +$1 +8%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $125 +$16 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $29 +$27 +94%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 03 $198 −$198 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $63 +$6 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $67 +$6 +10%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $96 +$6 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $57 +$49 +86%
1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 27 $93 −$93 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 13 $81 −$81 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 13 $2 $0 -5%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 13 $5 $0 -7%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $44 −$5 -10%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets May 13 $19 +$13 +70%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 May 13 $13 +$12 +90%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 13 $13 +$10 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 12 $2 $0 -5%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 May 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 12 $11 −$5 -45%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $42 −$42 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 12 $2 +$2 +79%
Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline May 12 $25 +$8 +32%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $6 +$6 +105%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 11 $87 +$7 +8%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks May 11 $22 +$5 +24%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins May 11 $4 −$4 -100%
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies May 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 11 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds May 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox May 11 $21 −$21 -100%
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $30 +$4 +12%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $2 $0 +3%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 08 $38 +$37 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $17 43m
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $28 2h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $6 2h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $30 3h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $3 3h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $2 3h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $7 3h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $7 3h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $7 3h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $4 3h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $4 4h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $38 4h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $2 4h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $48 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $4 16h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $30 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 38¢ $16 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $17 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $3 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $35 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $25 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 33¢ $24 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $11 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $3 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $17 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $1 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $15 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $2 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 45¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $859.87 · official $859.87 (match) · 483 history records