Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc81…3f87 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$146 (-20%) realized −$199 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$69
other 37% −$28
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -23.2% -30.5% 36% 36% -31.1%
≤30d 14 -23.2% -30.5% 36% 36% -31.1%
≤90d 14 -23.2% -30.5% 36% 36% -31.1%
all 14 -23.2% -30.5% 36% 36% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 36% -31.1%
10% -37.2% 36% -37.7%
15% -43.3% 29% -43.8%
20% -48.8% 14% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$30 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$199
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 100¢ $50 $96 +$46 (+91%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 69¢ 81¢ $43 $50 +$7 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 +$27 +45%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $70 −$3 -4%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $49 +$20 +40%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 −$2 -4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$49 -96%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$3 -5%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $45 +$38 +86%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $24 +$7 +30%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $25 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $43 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 94¢ $88 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 19h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $51 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 62¢ $67 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $70 26h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 98¢ $69 26h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $49 27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $49 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $47 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $49 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $58 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $58 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $83 3d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 55¢ $32 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $46 3d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 41¢ $24 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $45 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.93 · official $139.31 · 29 history records