Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:57:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc81…e072 sports 804 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 155d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,530 (+4%) realized +$1,517 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate49%387W / 405L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$214est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$18
14 days−$345
30 days+$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$422
world 15% +$268
other 14% −$5
politics 4% −$160
economics 3% +$20
weather 2% −$17
finance 2% −$161
culture 1% −$37
crypto 1% −$9
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +1.2% -8.4% 48% 17% -7.6%
≤30d 144 +4.2% -5.7% 38% 19% -7.5%
≤90d 443 -2.1% -11.4% 46% 17% -9.2%
all 792 -1.1% -10.5% 49% 18% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 18% -8.7%
10% -19.1% 12% -17.4%
15% -26.9% 8% -25.4%
20% -34.1% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$1,402
Realized+$1,517
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses387 / 405
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$214
Open positions14
Markets (closed)792 / 804
History coverage156d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 792 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 78¢ 86¢ $276 $308 +$31 (+11%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $230 $249 +$19 (+8%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $67 $83 +$16 (+23%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 59¢ 97¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+65%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+3%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+8%)
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 97¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? No 96¢ 96¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Gabriela Knutson 17¢ 16¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? Yes 89¢ 70¢ $27 $21 −$6 (-21%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 71¢ 32¢ $8 $4 −$5 (-54%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 20¢ 1¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-96%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 83¢ 2¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-97%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 63¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+58%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 67¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $6 +$6 +93%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $31 −$24 -78%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $30 +$3 +8%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $30 +$2 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $60 +$3 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $60 +$9 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $32 +$24 +74%
Paula Badosa vs. Sinja Kraus: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $55 −$1 -2%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus Jun 20 $149 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Badosa vs Kraus Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Badosa (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 20 $30 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $30 −$6 -21%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $30 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 -8%
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska Jun 16 $61 −$1 -2%
Lois Boisson vs. Dayana Yastremska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 16 $84 $0 +0%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $127 −$2 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Dart vs Boulter Jun 16 $152 −$5 -3%
Raducanu vs. Pliskova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $88 −$2 -2%
Raducanu vs. Pliskova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $30 −$1 -3%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $104 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Raducanu vs Pliskova Jun 15 $27 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $85 −$85 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $165 −$105 -64%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 14 $144 +$14 +10%
Stojsavljevic vs. Kostyuk: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $30 −$2 -6%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $45 −$1 -3%
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 14 $47 −$2 -3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $91 +$8 +8%
ITF kiseljak: Josip Simundza vs Yannick Baluska Jun 14 $88 −$3 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Munar Jun 14 $113 −$2 -2%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $119 −$2 -2%
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $127 −$2 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Bartunkova vs Gauff Jun 14 $62 −$1 -2%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Nikola Bartunkova vs. Coco Gauff: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $75 −$2 -2%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $95 −$1 -2%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Kamilla Rakhimo Jun 13 $142 −$5 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Guiomar Maristany vs Jazmin Ortenzi BUY Jazmin Ortenzi 50¢ $30 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 17¢ $31 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $6 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper BUY Jack Draper 50¢ $30 26h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 38h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 38h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 20¢ $31 38h
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 42h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 2d
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $9 2d
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 2d
Paula Badosa vs. Sinja Kraus: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 50¢ $10 2d
Paula Badosa vs. Sinja Kraus: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 50¢ $10 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 50¢ $10 2d
Paula Badosa vs. Sinja Kraus: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 50¢ $30 2d
Set 1 Winner: Badosa vs Kraus BUY Kraus 50¢ $30 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 50¢ $30 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 50¢ $13 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 50¢ $7 2d
Paula Badosa vs. Sinja Kraus: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 50¢ $5 2d
Set 1 Winner: Badosa vs Kraus BUY Kraus 50¢ $5 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 50¢ $16 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 50¢ $16 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 50¢ $7 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 50¢ $10 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 50¢ $30 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 50¢ $5 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 50¢ $5 2d
Set Handicap: Badosa (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) BUY Kraus 51¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,401.88 · official $1,401.56 (match) · 3500 history records