Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:00:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

FC 0xfc7e…2780 crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$12 (+24%) realized +$12 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate48%10W / 11L

Drawdown84%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day34.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+14.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+26.0%	+14.0%	48%	33%	+19.8%
≤30d	21	+26.0%	+14.0%	48%	33%	+19.8%
≤90d	21	+26.0%	+14.0%	48%	33%	+19.8%
all	21	+26.0%	+14.0%	48%	33%	+19.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover34.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+14.0%	33%	+19.8%
10% ← realistic here	+3.1%	33%	+8.3%
15%	-6.8%	29%	-2.1%
20%	-16.0%	29%	-11.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

30% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +80% → late -23% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$12

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses10 / 11

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day34.0

Drawdown84%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$16	+296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$1	-24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$2	+65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$4	+174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$1	-44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$9	+446%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 15	$1	+$4	+392%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 15	$1	+$1	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 15	$1	$0	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$5	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$3	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$3	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$1	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$3	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$1	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$1	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$1	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$1	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$1	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$3	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$1	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$1	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$1	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$1	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$1	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$3	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$1	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$5	17h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records