Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:42:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc7d…1860
crypto · 169 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,868 -28%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,895 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$1,895
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses68 / 100
Open positions1
Markets (closed)168 / 169
History coverage140d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 168 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$101
14 days−$155
30 days−$327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Down 41¢ 68¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+66%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 14? Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 1? No 50¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$9 +27%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $99 −$65 -66%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$16 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $21 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $215 −$69 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11AM ET Jun 04 $41 +$24 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 04 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8AM ET Jun 04 $14 −$7 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 04 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $99 −$96 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 03 $100 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 03 $52 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $50 +$39 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 01 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 26 $61 −$59 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6AM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 21 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4AM ET May 21 $43 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 19 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2AM ET May 16 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8AM ET May 14 $86 −$81 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4AM ET May 14 $45 +$40 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3AM ET May 14 $24 +$22 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5AM ET May 13 $115 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 13 $61 +$54 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 13 $36 +$25 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 13 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $129 −$84 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$1,819
other 3% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $49 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $43 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $34 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? SELL No 30¢ $34 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY No 86¢ $97 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 79¢ $97 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY No 83¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? SELL Up 0¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? BUY Up 1¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? BUY Up 12¢ $106 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? SELL Down 87¢ $107 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 51¢ $13 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 51¢ $25 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -60.2% -64.0% 14% 14% -42.4%
≤30d 44 -36.9% -42.9% 32% 30% -32.8%
≤90d 85 -28.4% -35.2% 41% 35% -41.9%
all 168 -24.3% -31.5% 40% 35% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 35% -35.7%
10% -38.1% 33% -41.8%
15% -44.1% 28% -47.5%
20% -49.6% 23% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.85 · official $16.85 (match) · 421 history records