Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:48:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc7c…7f0d crypto 546 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%291W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day51.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$138
14 days−$73
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 346 -12.1% -20.5% 51% 45% -12.8%
≤30d 545 -4.3% -13.4% 53% 46% -11.7%
≤90d 545 -4.3% -13.4% 53% 46% -11.7%
all 545 -4.3% -13.4% 53% 46% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 46% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 40% -20.1%
15% -29.3% 34% -27.9%
20% -36.2% 31% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses291 / 254
Open positions1
Markets (closed)545 / 546
History coverage23d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day51.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 545 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 47¢ 46¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $27 +$15 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $33 −$17 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $33 +$17 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $41 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $133 +$47 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $235 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $91 +$18 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $35 −$13 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$7 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $90 +$22 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $79 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $108 −$48 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $230 −$38 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $68 +$18 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $47 +$21 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$18 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$12 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $33 −$28 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $49 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$15 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$6 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $16 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $14 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $27 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $14 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $14 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $14 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $0 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $7 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $17 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $19 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $19 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $16 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $31 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.32 · official $18.04 · 1500 history records