Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FC 0xfc77…4c6e crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate68%25W / 12L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$705per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$13
economics 19% −$9
other 19% −$5
crypto 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 37 -4.2% -13.3% 68% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 3% -9.6%
10% -21.6% 3% -18.3%
15% -29.2% 3% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses25 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage227d
Avg bet$705
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in May? Jun 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? Jun 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in March? May 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? May 06 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on March 12? Mar 27 $46 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 11 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Feb 27 $10 +$5 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 15? Feb 27 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 27 $108 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 8? Feb 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 27? Feb 08 $23 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 18 $3,408 −$3 -0%
Will FC Augsburg win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Jan 18 $3,420 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 14? Jan 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $3,404 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 10? Jan 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 06 $2,988 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 5? Jan 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 06 $2,988 −$3 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 06 $3,001 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 21? Dec 26 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on December 10? Dec 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 4? Dec 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 1? Dec 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 20? Dec 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 1? Dec 01 $50 −$2 -3%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 11 $2,155 −$2 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 10 $2,158 −$2 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 10 $2,154 −$7 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 42d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $77 49d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in March? BUY No 100¢ $48 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $63 90d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $46 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $108 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 118d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $30 130d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $22 130d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $26 130d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 130d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 8? BUY No 100¢ $25 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 149d
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $3,405 158d
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $3,408 158d
Will FC Augsburg win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? SELL No 100¢ $3,417 158d
Will FC Augsburg win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? BUY No 100¢ $3,420 158d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $3,401 158d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $3,404 158d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 162d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $40 165d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 166d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $2,985 170d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $2,988 170d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2,985 170d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2,988 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 79 history records