Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc76…4fca
other · 434 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses424 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)425 / 434
History coverage218d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 9 History 425 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 100¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 100¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? No 100¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? No 100¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? No 100¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 100¢ 86¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes 100¢ 41¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will PPI YoY be below 3.0% in May? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $500B? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $1.0T? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs XI Esport (+1.5) Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Playo Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be less than $125M at market c Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Subtop De France vs Arch - Map 2 Winner May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) open above $7,700 on May 26, 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Verso Time vs Magic - Game 2 Winner May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Game 5: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $11.0B? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 21 $5 $0 +2%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 0.3%? May 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3: Odd/Even Total Rounds? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs The Soulless Team - Game 2 Win May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Prestige (BO3) - European Pro League Regular G May 09 $5 $0 +0%
El Mokawloon El Arab SC vs. El Gouna SC: O/U 3.5 May 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nikolai Denkov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2 May 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? May 08 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: SINQU vs BoyBand - Map 2 Winner May 05 $5 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $104 on May 4? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 K May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026? May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 1, 2026? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 1, 2026? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 16 be at le May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3: Odd/Even Total Rounds? May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Meta (META) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs FORZE Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Gay" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21? Apr 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will no qualifying event occur on April 21? Apr 21 $5 $0 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $680 on April 20? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: AaB Esport vs Infinite (BO1) - Parken Challenger Champ Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 special election? Apr 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 20 Apr 16 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% +$2
sports 23% +$1
tech 15% $0
politics 8% −$4
culture 6% +$1
world 6% +$1
crypto 4% −$5
finance 4% $0
economics 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY No 100¢ $5 13h
Will PPI YoY be below 3.0% in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 35h
Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $1.0T? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $500B? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs XI Esport (+1.5) BUY XI Esport 100¢ $5 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Playo BUY Ramzes Club 100¢ $5 6d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 12d
Counter-Strike: Subtop De France vs Arch - Map 2 Winner BUY Arch 100¢ $5 12d
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be less than $125M at market c BUY No 100¢ $5 16d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Verso Time vs Magic - Game 2 Winner BUY Verso Time 100¢ $5 16d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY ex-HEROIC 100¢ $5 16d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) open above $7,700 on May 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 17d
Game 5: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY No 100¢ $5 21d
Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $11.0B? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 22d
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 23d
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? BUY No 98¢ $5 24d
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 0.3%? BUY No 100¢ $5 29d
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? BUY Even 100¢ $5 31d
Map 3: Odd/Even Total Rounds? BUY Odd 100¢ $5 31d
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY LPH Gaming 100¢ $5 33d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs The Soulless Team - Game 2 Win BUY HARD GRIND 100¢ $5 34d
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Prestige (BO3) - European Pro League Regular G BUY Prestige 100¢ $5 35d
El Mokawloon El Arab SC vs. El Gouna SC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 35d
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? BUY No 100¢ $5 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 21 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 59 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 425 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.48 · official $40.48 (match) · 865 history records