Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc76…0ad0
tech · 56 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
+$17,001 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15,631 · open +$1,303
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP tech specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$17,589
Realized+$15,631
Unrealized+$1,303
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses26 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)45 / 56
Avg bet$2,510
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 11 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3,033
14 days+$3,033
30 days+$3,645
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 98¢ $6,048 $7,547 +$1,499 (+25%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 91¢ 89¢ $3,541 $3,478 −$63 (-2%)
Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $2,190 $2,318 +$128 (+6%)
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? No 74¢ 92¢ $863 $1,070 +$208 (+24%)
Grok 4.4 released by June 15? No 93¢ 99¢ $957 $1,019 +$62 (+6%)
Anthropic acquired before 2027? No 91¢ 96¢ $687 $724 +$36 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 51¢ 22¢ $1,164 $511 −$653 (-56%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $421 $452 +$32 (+7%)
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? No 85¢ 94¢ $358 $394 +$36 (+10%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 53¢ 77¢ $47 $69 +$21 (+45%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Yes 94¢ 64¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2,131 $0 −$2,131 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 08 $12,840 +$1,728 +14%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $4,446 +$584 +13%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 08 $4,076 +$410 +10%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 08 $720 +$312 +43%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? May 17 $4,616 +$550 +12%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? May 17 $351 +$23 +7%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? May 17 $408 +$9 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? May 17 $483 +$30 +6%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 11 $324 +$42 +13%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Apr 08 $6,182 −$5,343 -86%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Apr 08 $2,141 −$2,138 -100%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Apr 01 $185 −$148 -80%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $2,429 +$71 +3%
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $13,547 +$2,409 +18%
Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 18 $70 −$68 -97%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 18 $445 −$250 -56%
Grok 4.20 released by February 28? Feb 17 $9,963 +$5,199 +52%
Grok 4.20 released by March 31? Feb 17 $3,095 −$202 -6%
Grok 4.20 released by April 20? Feb 17 $1,699 +$1 +0%
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? Feb 15 $6 −$2 -28%
Grok 4.20 released by February 14? Feb 15 $2,264 +$146 +6%
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by February 14, 2026? Feb 15 $1,344 +$97 +7%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $279 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 15 $29 +$16 +55%
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? Feb 15 $11 $0 -1%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Feb 15 $871 +$25 +3%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Feb 06 $19 +$3 +15%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Feb 06 $11 −$2 -17%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 06 $165 −$73 -44%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Feb 05 $120 −$9 -8%
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Feb 05 $1,020 −$414 -40%
Grok 4.20 released by January 31? Feb 01 $9,230 +$630 +7%
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $9,491 +$949 +10%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $103 −$51 -49%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 30 $382 −$218 -57%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 30 $304 −$234 -77%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 24, 2026? Jan 28 $585 +$15 +3%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 21, 2026? Jan 22 $10,766 +$126 +1%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 20, 2026? Jan 21 $1,879 +$16 +1%
Grok 4.20 released by January 15? Jan 16 $9,404 +$9,941 +106%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Jan 14 $10 −$6 -56%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 14 $103 −$66 -64%
Grok 4.20 released by January 9? Jan 10 $5,400 +$1,465 +27%
Grok 4.20 released by December 31? Jan 01 $1,195 +$58 +5%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 22 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 66% +$22,680
tech 34% −$5,788
politics 0% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $183 2d
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $14 2d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $192 2d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $89 2d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 2d
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $636 2d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $706 3d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $244 3d
Grok 4.4 released by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $144 3d
Grok 4.4 released by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $428 3d
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $429 3d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $72 4d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $72 4d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $72 4d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 4d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $72 4d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $72 4d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $73 4d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $91 4d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $72 4d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $72 4d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $125 4d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $995 4d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $523 4d
Grok 4.4 released by June 15? BUY No 91¢ $387 4d
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $149 4d
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $96 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da SELL Yes 100¢ $2,069 4d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,659 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da SELL Yes 99¢ $465 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +20.0% +8.5% 100% 75% +2.9%
≤30d 8 +13.3% +2.6% 100% 50% +2.3%
≤90d 16 -17.5% -25.3% 69% 38% -12.5%
all 45 -9.6% -18.2% 58% 24% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 24% +2.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 11% -7.8%
15% -33.2% 9% -16.7%
20% -39.7% 7% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,589.33 · official $17,589.33 (match) · 912 history records