Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc73…5f26 weather 240 markets active 17h ago coverage 56d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses bigP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$167 (-0%) realized −$167 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%214W / 26L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 69% −$375
crypto 17% −$459
other 14% −$1,766
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 5% -9.2%
≤30d 87 -4.2% -13.3% 95% 1% -11.8%
≤90d 240 -4.6% -13.7% 89% 0% -14.1%
all 240 -4.6% -13.7% 89% 0% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -14.1%
10% -22.0% 0% -22.4%
15% -29.5% 0% -29.9%
20% -36.4% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$108 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$167
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses214 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)240 / 240
History coverage56d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 240 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $265 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $265 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $174 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $261 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $260 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 14 $127 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 14 $84 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $256 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $256 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $239 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $255 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $255 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $255 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 12 $255 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $254 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $254 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 11 $253 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $251 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $252 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $252 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $251 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 8? Jun 08 $206 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $251 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 08 $162 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 08 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 7? Jun 07 $250 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 7? Jun 07 $150 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 07 $249 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $249 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 6? Jun 06 $248 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $248 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $247 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 05 $246 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $246 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $245 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $213 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 2? Jun 02 $244 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 1? Jun 02 $244 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $243 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $243 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $216 16h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $50 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $265 39h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $90 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $174 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $261 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $95 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $165 3d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY Yes 100¢ $52 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $84 3d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY Yes 100¢ $75 3d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $47 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $180 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $76 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $87 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $44 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $17 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $239 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $255 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $255 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $220 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $255 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $254 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 723 history records