trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -2.1% | -11.5% | 43% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -2.8% | -12.0% | 57% | 14% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -2.8% | -12.0% | 55% | 15% | -9.4% |
| all | 20 | -2.8% | -12.0% | 55% | 15% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.0% | 15% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -20.5% | 15% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -28.1% | 5% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -35.2% | 5% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 83¢ | 82¢ | $79 | $78 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Yes | 87¢ | 86¢ | $57 | $57 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 58¢ | 58¢ | $23 | $23 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 29 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | Jun 29 | $49 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 29 | $74 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 29 | $17 | −$2 | -15% |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 25 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 25 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 25 | $55 | $0 | -0% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Jun 12 | $38 | +$3 | +8% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +33% |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$2 | +33% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $42 | $0 | -1% |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | -18% |
| Base FDV above $10B one day after launch? | May 30 | $2 | $0 | -22% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | May 30 | $1 | −$1 | -59% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | May 30 | $2 | +$1 | +71% |
| Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +4% |