Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FC 0xfc70…69bc sports 539 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+7%) realized +$89 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%307W / 191L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% +$18
world 21% +$1
finance 19% −$15
other 15% +$17
politics 7% +$36
economics 5% −$2
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +39.0% +25.8% 65% 65% +27.1%
≤30d 50 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 44% +2.5%
≤90d 226 +11.6% +1.0% 60% 53% +6.9%
all 498 +8.1% -2.2% 62% 54% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 54% +0.5%
10% -11.6% 41% -9.1%
15% -20.1% 32% -17.9%
20% -27.9% 26% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$89
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses307 / 191
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions41
Markets (closed)498 / 539
History coverage278d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 498 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 61¢ 51¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 76¢ 69¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Blue wave in 2026? No 32¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 42¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 58¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+51%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 50¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Blue tsunami in 2026? No 58¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 67¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +212%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +47%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +85%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +65%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +47%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 +$1 +101%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +28%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1 −$1 -67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $24 +$6 +25%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 29 $1 $0 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $4 $0 -8%
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? May 29 $1 $0 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $2 +$1 +66%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 25 $8 $0 +4%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 23 $2 +$1 +74%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 20? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 19 $3 −$2 -77%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $2 $0 +10%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? SELL No 81¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 23h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $2 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $1 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2 45h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 84¢ $4 45h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $1 2d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 32¢ $1 2d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 23¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 78¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.49 · official $43.66 (match) · 1235 history records