Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:57:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc6d…b6f5 crypto 841 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-2%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%443W / 398L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$32
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -19.9% -27.5% 47% 47% -24.3%
≤30d 77 -3.2% -12.4% 56% 56% -10.6%
≤90d 77 -3.2% -12.4% 56% 56% -10.6%
all 841 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 51% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 51% -12.0%
10% -21.0% 50% -20.5%
15% -28.6% 44% -28.1%
20% -35.6% 33% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses443 / 398
Open positions0
Markets (closed)841 / 841
History coverage145d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 841 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1853 history records