trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +17.3% | +6.1% | 50% | 50% | +6.9% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 50% | 50% | +2.9% |
| ≤90d | 18 | -17.1% | -25.0% | 44% | 44% | -22.4% |
| all | 21 | -6.7% | -15.5% | 52% | 52% | -10.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.5% | 52% | -10.4% |
| 10% | -23.6% | 52% | -18.9% |
| 15% | -31.0% | 52% | -26.8% |
| 20% | -37.8% | 33% | -34.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 66¢ | 77¢ | $200 | $233 | +$33 (+17%) |
| Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 62¢ | 62¢ | $200 | $198 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 48¢ | 47¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 21 | $191 | −$25 | -13% |
| Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 21 | $202 | +$96 | +48% |
| Spread: Knicks (-2.5) | Jun 08 | $128 | −$126 | -98% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 31 | $227 | +$158 | +69% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 15 | $51 | +$25 | +48% |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi | May 14 | $46 | −$45 | -98% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 14 | $457 | −$452 | -99% |
| Spread: Thunder (-10.5) | May 12 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Spread: Spurs (-4.5) | May 11 | $41 | −$41 | -100% |
| Spread: Knicks (-1.5) | May 11 | $41 | +$36 | +90% |
| Spread: Pistons (-3.5) | May 10 | $51 | +$45 | +90% |
| Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA | May 07 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1? | May 07 | $75 | −$75 | -100% |
| Spread: Knicks (-7.5) | May 07 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? | May 07 | $51 | +$53 | +105% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | May 06 | $153 | −$150 | -98% |
| Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? | May 06 | $404 | +$202 | +50% |
| Spread: Thunder (-9.5) | Apr 26 | $100 | +$105 | +105% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | Jan 30 | $200 | +$122 | +61% |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute | Jan 25 | $100 | +$69 | +69% |
| Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | Jan 01 | $300 | +$115 | +38% |