Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc6b…3196 crypto 1769 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$871 (-1%) realized −$871 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate88%1644W / 224L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day57.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,042
7 days−$1,037
14 days−$1,080
30 days−$1,927
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$692
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -49.4% -54.3% 50% 0% -74.0%
≤30d 1733 -6.5% -15.4% 87% 13% -11.0%
≤90d 1868 -6.1% -15.0% 88% 12% -10.6%
all 1868 -6.1% -15.0% 88% 12% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 12% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 6% -19.2%
15% -30.6% 2% -27.0%
20% -37.4% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$18 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$871
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1644 / 224
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1868 / 1769
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$81
Trades / day57.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1868 Trades
no open positions (195 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records