Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:22:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FC 0xfc6a…ca8f politics 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$13
other 40% −$11
sports 7% +$26
crypto 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 -1.6% -11.0% 4% 3% -9.7%
all 133 +3.4% -6.5% 10% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 8% -9.5%
10% -15.4% 7% -18.2%
15% -23.6% 5% -26.1%
20% -31.1% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×9.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)133 / 136
History coverage121d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $166 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $223 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $175 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $380 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $138 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $319 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $151 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $140 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $184 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $195 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $317 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $348 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $136 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $159 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $159 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $204 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $157 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $128 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $472 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $139 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $316 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $163 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $114 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $128 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $126 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $409 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $165 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $194 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $150 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $193 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 26 $147 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $24 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $23 3d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 8d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 12d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $29 14d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $29 16d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 16d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 17d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 17d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 17d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 17d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 18d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 18d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 18d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 18d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 18d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 19d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 20d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.03 · official $73.03 (match) · 408 history records