Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc68…6901 other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate49%43W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$6
crypto 31% −$54
other 17% +$82
sports 8% +$7
finance 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +9.2% -1.2% 25% 21% +5.0%
≤30d 26 +8.4% -1.9% 27% 19% +4.8%
≤90d 88 -1.6% -11.0% 49% 18% -8.8%
all 88 -1.6% -11.0% 49% 18% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 18% -8.8%
10% -19.5% 9% -17.5%
15% -27.3% 7% -25.5%
20% -34.4% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses43 / 45
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage82d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $243 +$29 +12%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 21 $5 $0 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 21 $5 $0 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 21 $5 $0 -4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 21 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 21 $5 $0 -6%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $10 $0 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 21 $24 −$3 -12%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 21 $5 $0 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 21 $5 $0 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 +$12 +52%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 $0 -2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $42 −$25 -59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $24 +$17 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 +$66 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 +$3 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $4 $0 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $4 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $10 +$2 +22%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 01 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $20 +$8 +43%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner Apr 30 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $4 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $4 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 28 $4 $0 -6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 28 $4 $0 -8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $4 $0 -2%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? Apr 28 $4 $0 -5%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $4 $0 -4%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 28 $4 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 28 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 28 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $221 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 64¢ $5 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $14 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 61¢ $10 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 13¢ $21 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 9h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 5¢ $15 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $22 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $17 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.12 · official $3.13 (match) · 700 history records