Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc67…a7dd politics 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,071 (+1%) realized +$2,070 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate23%41W / 139L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,597per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$763now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$23
14 days+$10
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$542
politics 39% −$141
sports 11% +$2,730
culture 2% −$9
world 2% −$17
tech 1% −$5
crypto 1% +$2
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 48 +4.2% -5.7% 10% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 114 -5.6% -14.6% 6% 4% -9.6%
all 180 +3.1% -6.7% 23% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 11% -8.9%
10% -15.6% 11% -17.6%
15% -23.8% 9% -25.6%
20% -31.2% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,541) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$9 · ×9.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$763
Realized+$2,070
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses41 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)180 / 182
History coverage147d
Avg bet$1,597
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $497 $497 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $264 $266 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,808 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,866 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $1,171 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $1,154 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $1,447 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,121 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,845 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,572 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4,325 −$5 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5,362 −$6 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,739 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3,141 −$4 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $3,726 −$5 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $4,342 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $4,760 −$5 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $1,489 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $63 +$72 +114%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,671 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,675 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $47 +$63 +134%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $3,129 −$5 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,586 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,420 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $738 +$2 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $4,005 −$4 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2,844 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 27 $2,528 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,082 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1,667 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $4,447 −$5 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $4,384 −$5 -0%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $3,204 −$4 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 23 $72 +$55 +76%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $3,119 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,661 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $4,236 −$5 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $4,215 −$7 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $63 +$52 +83%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,614 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $2,541 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 21 $1,371 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 19 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $1,668 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $497 59m
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,126 20h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,127 21h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,531 24h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,533 25h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,169 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,171 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,153 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,154 2d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,445 2d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,447 3d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,475 3d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,478 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,326 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,328 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,569 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,572 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,291 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,293 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,621 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,623 8d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,232 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $265 8d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,234 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,736 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,739 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,697 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,700 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,542 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,544 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $762.64 · official $762.64 (match) · 625 history records