Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc64…96fe sports 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7,431 (-2%) realized −$7,431 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate76%89W / 28L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,806per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1,364est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$194
7 days+$353
14 days+$673
30 days−$3,104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$7,046
other 4% −$561
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -23.5% -30.8% 75% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 40 -13.7% -22.0% 72% 2% -14.1%
≤90d 117 -9.5% -18.2% 76% 11% -10.8%
all 117 -9.5% -18.2% 76% 11% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 11% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 3% -19.4%
15% -33.1% 1% -27.1%
20% -39.7% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$7,004) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$803 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,431
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses89 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1,364
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage67d
Avg bet$3,806
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $3,002 +$59 +2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $3,001 +$33 +1%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $3,002 +$62 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $3,501 +$39 +1%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,004 +$125 +4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3,002 +$50 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $3,020 +$106 +4%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $3,003 +$90 +3%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $2,004 +$124 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $201 −$29 -15%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $2,007 −$322 -16%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $5,018 −$355 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $96 +$6 +7%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $5,873 −$2,579 -44%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $4,004 +$121 +3%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $3,002 +$62 +2%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $502 −$500 -100%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 −$80 -79%
Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $501 +$26 +5%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $60 +$19 +32%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Mayar Sherif May 28 $500 −$13 -2%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $500 +$15 +3%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $500 +$17 +3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $301 +$8 +3%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $1,542 +$42 +3%
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $200 +$7 +4%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $500 +$10 +2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $502 +$30 +6%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $1,001 +$40 +4%
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $500 +$10 +2%
Will IK Start win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $200 +$10 +5%
Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $4,005 +$162 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov May 25 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Roland Garros WTA: Maya Joint vs Anastasia Potapova May 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe May 25 $10 $0 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka May 25 $51 +$4 +8%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 24 $5,005 +$146 +3%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $5,017 +$64 +1%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $1,184 +$17 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $12,029 −$2,619 -22%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $463 −$31 -7%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $8,007 +$240 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $7,009 −$870 -12%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $1,316 +$14 +1%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $7,019 +$412 +6%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians - Who w May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $3,002 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $3,001 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $3,002 29h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 99¢ $3,501 41h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 24¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $3,004 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $3,002 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh $10 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 99¢ $3,109 8d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 95¢ $3,004 8d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 64¢ $16 8d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 58¢ $15 8d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 97¢ $3,003 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 94¢ $2,004 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 77¢ $171 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 90¢ $201 17d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 75¢ $920 18d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 75¢ $112 18d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 75¢ $11 18d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 75¢ $5 18d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 75¢ $4 18d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 75¢ $38 18d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 75¢ $30 18d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 75¢ $12 18d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 75¢ $112 18d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 75¢ $11 18d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 75¢ $4 18d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 75¢ $112 18d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 75¢ $11 18d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 75¢ $38 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 277 history records