Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:55:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc5c…384a crypto 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-29%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%32W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -17.8% -25.6% 27% 27% -23.0%
≤30d 116 -17.8% -25.6% 27% 27% -23.0%
≤90d 116 -17.8% -25.6% 27% 27% -23.0%
all 122 -20.9% -28.5% 26% 25% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 25% -41.3%
10% -35.3% 25% -46.9%
15% -41.6% 25% -52.1%
20% -47.3% 25% -56.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses32 / 90
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage223d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions (88 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +280%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +331%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records