Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FC 0xfc5b…2a5a sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$117 (+18%) realized +$15 · open +$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%31W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day74.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +27.3% +15.1% 57% 57% +11.9%
≤30d 54 +27.3% +15.1% 57% 57% +11.9%
≤90d 54 +27.3% +15.1% 57% 57% +11.9%
all 54 +27.3% +15.1% 57% 57% +11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.1% 57% +11.9%
10% ← realistic here +4.1% 57% +1.2%
15% -5.9% 48% -8.6%
20% -15.2% 41% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses31 / 23
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions25
Markets (closed)54 / 79
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day74.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Mathys Picard Mathys Picard 20¢ 84¢ $21 $89 +$68 (+322%)
ITF Tanger: Florian Broska vs Yassine Dlimi Yassine Dlimi 38¢ 55¢ $55 $79 +$24 (+45%)
ITF Brussels: Fadi Bidan vs Dylan Dietrich Dylan Dietrich 87¢ 88¢ $26 $27 +$0 (+2%)
ITF Bergamo: Pietro Romeo Scomparin vs Denis Constantin Spiridon Pietro Romeo Scomparin 62¢ 64¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+4%)
Valorant: X-CAST vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Gen.G Global Academy 63¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
ITF Tanger: Reda Bennani vs Sean Cuenin Sean Cuenin 69¢ 90¢ $9 $11 +$3 (+31%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 46¢ 95¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+107%)
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Vasco Esports 69¢ 71¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage For Fun Esports 51¢ 46¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
Valorant: Riddle vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Riddle 59¢ 80¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs MODUS 27¢ 30¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group A Isurus 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Chiba Lotte Marines vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks 56¢ 53¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs G2 Minnesota 47¢ 45¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Iraq 65¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Cloud9 vs Spacestation Gaming (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage Spacestation Gaming 52¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Athletics 40¢ 40¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 48¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) PortlandFire 48¢ 51¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweight, Prelims) Jefferson Nascimento 50¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 34¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs MOUZ 40¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-39%)
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Xinyu Wang 23¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jelena Ostapenko 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $9 −$8 -98%
ITF Kamen: Victoria Pohle vs Kailey Evans Jun 26 $5 +$9 +188%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 26 $6 −$2 -30%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $2 +$3 +146%
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Anna Snigireva Jun 26 $1 +$4 +250%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 26 $3 +$2 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 +$3 +97%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Five Fears (BO1) - North America Lea Jun 26 $5 +$4 +76%
ITF Galati: Lavinia Luciano vs Anastasia Safta Jun 26 $4 +$3 +69%
Valorant: REJECT vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 169.5 Jun 26 $2 +$3 +119%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $3 +$3 +101%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick Wor Jun 26 $5 +$2 +46%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5) Jun 26 $4 +$4 +97%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North America Leag Jun 26 $5 +$4 +86%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch Jun 26 $6 +$11 +197%
ITF Wuning: Matthew Dellavedova vs Yuta Kawahashi Jun 26 $16 +$4 +26%
ITF Sapporo: Shiho Tsujioka vs Sae Noguchi Jun 26 $14 +$7 +52%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Amandine Hesse vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 26 $10 +$14 +134%
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 26 $22 +$7 +32%
ITF Monastir: Lourdes Ayala vs Karla Bartel Jun 26 $7 +$2 +31%
ITF Maanshan: Jiaqi Wang vs Chenting Zhu Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Galati: Irina Fetecau vs Giulia Safina Popa Jun 26 $3 +$3 +107%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $3 −$2 -98%
ITF Claremont: Paola Lopez vs Salma Ewing Jun 25 $7 +$2 +23%
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group Jun 25 $10 +$21 +206%
ITF Claremont: Bryce Nakashima vs Spencer Johnson Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $5 +$2 +50%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen Jun 25 $10 +$4 +36%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 25 $3 +$10 +339%
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Robert Strombachs Jun 25 $11 +$3 +32%
ITF Rome: Ariana Arseneault vs Elizabeth Ionescu Jun 25 $12 +$6 +46%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lina Gjorcheska vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 25 $7 +$24 +325%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Jun 25 $18 +$19 +109%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 25 $14 +$34 +250%
Plovdiv: Petr Nesterov vs Tommaso Compagnucci Jun 25 $26 +$37 +140%
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 25 $2 +$4 +197%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Han Shi Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $23 −$23 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: One Coin vs Kingzone (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Grou Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $28 −$27 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys Jun 25 $9 −$8 -98%
ITF Rome: Madison Brengle vs Ekaterina Khayrutdinova Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Robin Montgomer Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
ITF Rome: Savannah Broadus vs Alicia Herrero Linana Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 25 $18 −$18 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka BUY Xinyu Wang 23¢ $1 54m
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag BUY G2 Minnesota 47¢ $4 1h
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Mathys Picard BUY Mathys Picard 20¢ $22 1h
ITF Tanger: Florian Broska vs Yassine Dlimi BUY Yassine Dlimi 38¢ $56 1h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 40¢ $3 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Americ BUY For Fun Esports 51¢ $7 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Americ BUY For Fun Esports 49¢ $1 2h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 48¢ $3 2h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic BUY Andrej Nedic 40¢ $9 2h
ITF Brussels: Fadi Bidan vs Dylan Dietrich BUY Dylan Dietrich 87¢ $26 2h
ITF Kamen: Victoria Pohle vs Kailey Evans BUY Victoria Pohle 34¢ $5 4h
ITF Galati: Lavinia Luciano vs Anastasia Safta BUY Anastasia Safta 59¢ $4 4h
ITF Bergamo: Pietro Romeo Scomparin vs Denis Constantin Spiridon BUY Pietro Romeo Scomparin 62¢ $23 5h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Isurus 59¢ $5 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: Cloud9 vs Spacestation Gaming (BO1) - North America BUY Spacestation Gaming 52¢ $3 5h
Valorant: REJECT vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY IGZIST 23¢ $2 5h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY MODUS 27¢ $5 5h
Valorant: X-CAST vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Se BUY Gen.G Global Academy 63¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Se BUY Vasco Esports 69¢ $7 6h
ITF Monastir: Lourdes Ayala vs Karla Bartel BUY Karla Bartel 76¢ $7 7h
ITF Tanger: Reda Bennani vs Sean Cuenin BUY Sean Cuenin 69¢ $9 7h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MOUZ 40¢ $3 8h
ITF Wuning: Matthew Dellavedova vs Yuta Kawahashi BUY Matthew Dellavedova 79¢ $16 8h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 8h
ITF Maanshan: Jiaqi Wang vs Chenting Zhu BUY Chenting Zhu 46¢ $5 9h
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Anna Snigireva BUY Eva Marie Desvignes 28¢ $1 9h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) BUY PortlandFire 48¢ $3 10h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 10h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 50¢ $4 10h
ITF Sapporo: Shiho Tsujioka vs Sae Noguchi BUY Sae Noguchi 65¢ $14 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.61 · official $340.61 (match) · 119 history records