Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc59…f1e5 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+30%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$8
other 18% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +13.7% +2.8% 44% 44% +6.5%
≤30d 11 -7.0% -15.9% 36% 36% -4.1%
≤90d 11 -7.0% -15.9% 36% 36% -4.1%
all 11 -7.0% -15.9% 36% 36% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 36% -4.1%
10% -23.9% 36% -13.2%
15% -31.3% 27% -21.6%
20% -38.0% 27% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$5 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records