trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +2.9% | -6.9% | 50% | 0% | -7.6% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +60.4% | +45.2% | 38% | 12% | -7.5% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +60.4% | +45.2% | 38% | 12% | -7.5% |
| all | 18 | +18.6% | +7.3% | 50% | 6% | -8.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +7.3% | 6% | -8.2% |
| 10% | -3.0% | 6% | -17.0% |
| 15% | -12.3% | 6% | -25.0% |
| 20% | -20.9% | 6% | -32.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | No | 75¢ | 73¢ | $53 | $52 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 38¢ | 52¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+40%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 18 | $49 | $0 | -0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 18 | $42 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $26 | +$3 | +10% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 17 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 27 | $15 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 26 | $2 | $0 | -6% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 25 | $47 | +$1 | +2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 25 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? | Jun 26 | $9 | $0 | +3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? | Apr 26 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft get traded? | Apr 19 | $9 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? | Apr 18 | $9 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | Mar 29 | $12 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? | Mar 27 | $1 | −$1 | -56% |
| Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 26 | $5 | $0 | +4% |