Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:43:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc56…fb8c sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,991 (-36%) realized −$3,002 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$9
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$3,027
politics 2% $0
weather 1% +$28
other 1% +$24
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -28.6% -35.4% 50% 50% +10.3%
≤30d 3 -52.4% -56.9% 33% 33% -9.1%
≤90d 8 -16.8% -24.7% 38% 38% -1.8%
all 20 -33.9% -40.2% 35% 35% -42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.2% 35% -42.0%
10% -45.9% 30% -47.5%
15% -51.2% 25% -52.6%
20% -56.0% 15% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$539) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -49% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$312 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$3,002
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage108d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? No 73¢ 94¢ $36 $47 +$11 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio Jun 30 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13? May 22 $61 +$38 +62%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 11 $135 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Lakers Apr 11 $300 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $31 +$19 +61%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Apr 01 $68 +$32 +47%
Kings vs. Hawks Mar 28 $99 −$99 -100%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 28 $65 +$35 +54%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Mar 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Mar 17 $800 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Celtics Mar 16 $483 −$483 -100%
Warriors vs. Knicks Mar 16 $258 −$215 -83%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Mar 16 $539 +$161 +30%
Pacers vs. Bucks Mar 15 $702 −$702 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 14 $1,740 −$1,740 -100%
Bulls vs. Clippers Mar 14 $2,550 +$450 +18%
Hornets vs. Spurs Mar 14 $448 −$448 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 73¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio BUY ShindeN 70¢ $21 25h
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio BUY ShindeN 70¢ $14 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $6 3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals AN BUY 12¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 38d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13? BUY No 61¢ $10 78d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13? BUY No 61¢ $8 78d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13? BUY No 61¢ $43 78d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL No 27¢ $135 79d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY No 27¢ $29 79d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY No 27¢ $6 79d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY No 27¢ $3 79d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY No 27¢ $74 79d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY No 27¢ $23 79d
Suns vs. Lakers SELL Suns 30¢ $300 79d
Suns vs. Lakers BUY Suns 30¢ $300 79d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 80d
Rockets vs. Pelicans BUY Rockets 68¢ $68 92d
Kings vs. Hawks BUY Kings 11¢ $8 93d
Kings vs. Hawks BUY Kings 11¢ $1 93d
Kings vs. Hawks BUY Kings 11¢ $1 93d
Kings vs. Hawks BUY Kings 11¢ $9 93d
Kings vs. Hawks BUY Kings 11¢ $6 93d
Kings vs. Hawks BUY Kings 11¢ $1 93d
Kings vs. Hawks BUY Kings 11¢ $1 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.25 · official $47.25 (match) · 131 history records