Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc55…5c33 other 203 markets active 14h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%56W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$1
politics 23% −$2
sports 18% −$12
economics 8% $0
world 6% −$7
culture 5% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 50 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -0.0% -9.5% 11% 0% -9.5%
all 201 -0.6% -10.1% 28% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses56 / 145
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)201 / 203
History coverage173d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Austria vs. Guatemala end in a draw? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? May 31 $16 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $62 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Zachary Svajda May 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 25 $17 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Aleksandar Vukic May 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? May 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $24 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? May 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri May 18 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $9 13h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $9 15h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $7 18h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $5 18h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $2 18h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 22h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 25h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $11 30h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $11 30h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $11 30h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $7 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $7 3d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $8 3d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $8 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $7 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $7 3d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 4d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 4d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $7 4d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $9 4d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $9 4d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $7 4d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $9 4d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $9 5d
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? SELL No 94¢ $8 5d
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? BUY No 94¢ $8 5d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $12 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.49 · official $21.49 (match) · 604 history records