Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:14:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FC 0xfc50…f8de sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$184 (+7%) realized +$184 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$266
other 3% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +10.0% -0.5% 58% 58% -0.9%
≤30d 19 +10.0% -0.5% 58% 58% -0.9%
≤90d 19 +10.0% -0.5% 58% 58% -0.9%
all 19 +10.0% -0.5% 58% 58% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 58% -0.9%
10% -10.0% 53% -10.4%
15% -18.7% 42% -19.1%
20% -26.7% 26% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$53 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $167 −$50 -30%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 28 $177 −$108 -61%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $25 +$21 +83%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $49 −$24 -50%
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm Jun 28 $483 +$255 +53%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 27 $101 +$111 +110%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 27 $242 +$62 +26%
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Jun 26 $561 −$198 -35%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 26 $202 +$67 +33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $54 −$2 -4%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 25 $195 +$35 +18%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Jun 25 $20 +$12 +59%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 25 $10 −$3 -27%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $14 +$6 +39%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 +$9 +46%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $15 +$6 +38%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 24 $82 +$77 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 54¢ $25 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 25¢ $25 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $49 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 100¢ $552 2h
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 50¢ $282 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 35¢ $186 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 37¢ $201 4h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 43¢ $69 4h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) SELL Los Angeles Sparks 35¢ $69 4h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 53¢ $108 4h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 96¢ $211 24h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 45¢ $101 26h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 100¢ $305 27h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 79¢ $242 28h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $39 2d
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL New York Liberty 19¢ $38 2d
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 56¢ $117 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 49¢ $117 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $128 2d
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL New York Liberty 47¢ $128 2d
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 71¢ $196 2d
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL New York Liberty 58¢ $196 2d
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 72¢ $248 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 100¢ $248 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 69¢ $173 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 37¢ $52 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Los Angeles Sparks 32¢ $21 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Los Angeles Sparks 43¢ $29 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $54 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records