Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FC 0xfc50…8ac5 crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$38 (+5%) realized +$39 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate86%31W / 5L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$2
other 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.9% -10.4% 86% 58% -9.0%
≤30d 36 -0.9% -10.4% 86% 58% -9.0%
≤90d 36 -0.9% -10.4% 86% 58% -9.0%
all 36 -0.9% -10.4% 86% 58% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 58% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 14% -17.7%
15% -26.8% 3% -25.7%
20% -34.0% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$16 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses31 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 83¢ 76¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $82 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $44 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $57 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $54 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $14 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $18 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $15 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $17 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $15 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.87 · official $11.35 · 113 history records