Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc4d…6e9d
crypto · 1604 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$111 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$111 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses1001 / 603
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1604 / 1604
History coverage49d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day50.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 0 History 1604 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 64% −$116
weather 18% +$29
other 12% +$8
culture 2% +$2
sports 2% −$47
world 2% −$6
politics 1% −$1
economics 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -5.0% -14.1% 68% 68% -10.9%
≤30d 63 -5.0% -14.1% 68% 68% -10.9%
≤90d 1604 -2.7% -12.0% 62% 60% -12.0%
all 1604 -2.7% -12.0% 62% 60% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover50.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 60% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 45% -20.5%
15% -28.1% 28% -28.1%
20% -35.1% 15% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records