Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc4d…1dc7 politics 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 336d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate28%21W / 54L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$6
politics 29% $0
other 20% +$5
finance 4% +$1
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +1.2% -8.5% 33% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 36% 0% -8.1%
all 75 +5.7% -4.3% 28% 1% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 1% -8.6%
10% -13.5% 1% -17.3%
15% -21.8% 1% -25.3%
20% -29.5% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.72 per $1 lost it wins $5.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses21 / 54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage336d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $22 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $38 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $48 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $49 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $134 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $78 +$8 +10%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -12%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 22 $38 $0 +1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $67 +$3 +4%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $10 $0 +5%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 17 $19 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 17 $2 $0 +7%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575–599 times August 8–August 15? Aug 17 $22 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will John Finucane win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 14 $15 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 12 $8 $0 +2%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Aug 10 $0 +$1 +429%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 10 $3 $0 -4%
Will LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the Aug 10 $85 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in July? Jul 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 70¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $23 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $13 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $22 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $43 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $6 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $48 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $48 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $49 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 53¢ $49 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 50¢ $46 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $45 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $45 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 83¢ $46 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 85¢ $47 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 46¢ $36 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 226 history records