Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc4c…2c2c crypto 7 markets active 6d ago coverage 121d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$107 (-41%) realized −$88 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% +$8
sports 28% −$31
crypto 26% −$39
tech 19% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-54.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -49.9% -54.6% 50% 0% -53.7%
≤30d 3 -66.6% -69.8% 33% 0% -68.9%
≤90d 3 -66.6% -69.8% 33% 0% -68.9%
all 6 -49.6% -54.4% 33% 17% -47.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.4% 17% -47.6%
10% -58.7% 0% -52.6%
15% -62.7% 0% -57.2%
20% -66.4% 0% -61.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$24 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$88
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage121d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $45 $26 −$19 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 $0 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 24 $50 −$46 -91%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 17 $50 −$11 -21%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 15 $50 +$8 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $21 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $21 6d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 18¢ $21 11d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 3¢ $4 113d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 46¢ $39 120d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 121d
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? SELL Yes 92¢ $58 122d
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 126d
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $45 127d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 35¢ $50 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.83 · official $25.83 (match) · 11 history records