Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:10:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc4c…392f other 74 markets active 117d ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$30,933 (+6%) realized +$30,587 · open +$346
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate77%48W / 14L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$6,624per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$12,517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$8,051
economics 10% +$46,338
tech 1% −$4,222
crypto 1% −$2,553
sports 0% −$616
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 62 -2.1% -11.4% 77% 19% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 19% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 13% -12.9%
15% -27.7% 11% -21.4%
20% -34.7% 8% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$5,954) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,518 vs −$3,023 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$12,517
Realized+$30,587
Unrealized+$346
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses48 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)62 / 74
History coverage115d
Avg bet$6,624
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hyperbeat FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 95¢ 98¢ $5,400 $5,579 +$179 (+3%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 88¢ 92¢ $1,713 $1,790 +$77 (+4%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,303 $1,295 −$8 (-1%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 99¢ 97¢ $1,000 $981 −$19 (-2%)
Ventuals FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 85¢ 96¢ $791 $899 +$108 (+14%)
Ventuals FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 98¢ 98¢ $500 $501 +$1 (+0%)
Ventuals FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 97¢ 99¢ $400 $406 +$6 (+1%)
Ventuals FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 95¢ 96¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 93¢ 96¢ $250 $258 +$8 (+3%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 95¢ 91¢ $228 $219 −$9 (-4%)
Ventuals FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 97¢ 95¢ $190 $187 −$3 (-2%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 94¢ 96¢ $96 $99 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 5? Mar 29 $3,002 −$3,002 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025? Mar 29 $4,222 −$4,222 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Mar 29 $616 −$616 -100%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Mar 29 $1,096 −$1,096 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 4? Mar 29 $882 −$882 -100%
Will Paradex launch a token by September 30 2026? Mar 07 $2,886 +$22 +1%
Will Paradex launch a token by April 30 2026? Mar 07 $1,810 +$140 +8%
Will Paradex launch a token by May 31, 2026? Mar 04 $695 +$26 +4%
Will Paradex launch a token by December 31 2026? Mar 04 $1,664 −$10 -1%
Will Paradex launch a token by June 30 2026? Mar 04 $1,882 +$101 +5%
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026? Mar 04 $3,473 +$320 +9%
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? Feb 26 $639 −$43 -7%
Infinex FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 03 $100 +$5 +5%
Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 03 $300 +$103 +34%
Infinex FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 03 $500 +$32 +6%
Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 03 $500 +$229 +46%
Trove FDV above $80M one day after launch? Jan 21 $2,500 +$37 +2%
Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jan 21 $2,500 +$316 +13%
Trove FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 21 $3,237 +$24 +1%
Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch? Jan 21 $6,278 +$109 +2%
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jan 21 $7,739 +$586 +8%
Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch? Jan 21 $9,440 +$224 +2%
Will prjx launch a token in 2025? Jan 01 $836 +$4 +0%
Rainbow FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 01 $1,666 +$17 +1%
Will Phantom launch a token in 2025? Jan 01 $2,000 +$68 +3%
Rainbow FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 01 $2,079 +$31 +2%
Will Paradex launch a token by December 31 2025? Jan 01 $2,484 +$8 +0%
Will Unit launch a token in 2025? Jan 01 $2,597 +$51 +2%
Will Axiom launch a token in 2025? Jan 01 $2,865 +$39 +1%
Rainbow FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 01 $3,987 +$13 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 01 $5,443 +$186 +3%
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 01 $15,728 +$930 +6%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Dec 31 $194 +$1 +0%
Harmonix FDV above $8M one day after launch? Dec 21 $195 +$2 +1%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 21 $2,485 −$1,894 -76%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 21 $53,910 −$4,225 -8%
Harmonix FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 20 $1,668 +$9 +1%
Harmonix FDV above $100M one day after launch? Dec 20 $8,134 +$70 +1%
Harmonix FDV above $15M one day after launch? Dec 20 $17,031 +$1,009 +6%
Harmonix FDV above $25M one day after launch? Dec 20 $32,587 +$2,979 +9%
Harmonix FDV above $50M one day after launch? Dec 20 $51,958 +$796 +2%
Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 6? Dec 20 $539 +$382 +71%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $73,193 +$6,179 +8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 20 $15,762 +$1,057 +7%
Felix Protocol FDV above $500M one day after launch? Dec 16 $438 +$5 +1%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 10 $18,185 +$1,400 +8%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $18,432 −$17,775 -96%
Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 01 $3,384 +$93 +3%
Kinetiq FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 01 $5,051 +$76 +2%
Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch? Nov 28 $5,203 +$2,242 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paradex launch a token by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $388 116d
Will Paradex launch a token by December 31 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $106 116d
Will Paradex launch a token by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $332 116d
Will Paradex launch a token by April 30 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $329 116d
Will Paradex launch a token by September 30 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,586 116d
Will Paradex launch a token by June 30 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,983 116d
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,794 116d
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 68¢ $160 122d
Trove FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $720 160d
Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $1,234 160d
Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $1,179 160d
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $2,739 160d
Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $4,206 160d
Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $2,599 160d
Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $1,500 161d
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY No 92¢ $2,500 161d
Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch? BUY No 89¢ $2,500 161d
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch? BUY No 90¢ $2,500 161d
Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $2,500 161d
Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $2,500 161d
Trove FDV above $80M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $2,500 161d
Trove FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $2,500 161d
Trove FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $17 161d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? SELL No 9¢ $591 189d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL No 12¢ $1,240 189d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $194 189d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 20¢ $3,012 191d
Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 6? BUY Yes 80¢ $39 191d
Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 6? BUY Yes 57¢ $500 191d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY No 99¢ $3,973 191d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,517.22 · official $12,517.23 (match) · 1307 history records