Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FC 0xfc4b…c865 sports 327 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$364 (+1%) realized +$370 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%146W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$377est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$602now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$553
7 days−$606
14 days−$746
30 days−$1,237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$184
other 2% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 50% -16.3%
≤30d 104 -9.4% -18.0% 42% 42% -18.2%
≤90d 324 +7.1% -3.1% 45% 45% -9.0%
all 324 +7.1% -3.1% 45% 45% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 45% -9.0%
10% -12.4% 45% -17.7%
15% -20.8% 43% -25.7%
20% -28.6% 41% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$68 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$602
Realized+$370
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses146 / 178
Est. fees paid−$377
Open positions3
Markets (closed)324 / 327
History coverage64d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $378 $375 −$3 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Under 31¢ 30¢ $133 $131 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Canada 29¢ 28¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $263 +$81 +31%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $305 +$99 +32%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $262 +$76 +29%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $320 −$314 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $77 +$212 +276%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $133 +$146 +109%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $24 +$48 +197%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $48 −$47 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $93 −$91 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $81 −$79 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $238 +$77 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $132 +$170 +129%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $126 +$176 +140%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $522 −$520 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $272 +$379 +140%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $165 −$162 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $203 +$76 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $229 +$74 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $118 +$146 +124%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $71 +$147 +206%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $54 −$53 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $58 −$57 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $44 −$43 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $125 +$142 +114%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $389 +$126 +32%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $187 −$184 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,036 −$1,027 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 13 $349 −$344 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $253 −$250 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $35 −$34 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $738 +$353 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $456 +$118 +26%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 13 $485 +$174 +36%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $92 −$90 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $265 +$116 +44%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 10 $43 −$42 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $122 −$120 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 10 $91 −$89 -98%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $74 −$72 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $139 +$146 +105%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $150 −$147 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $90 −$89 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $115 −$113 -98%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $56 +$20 +36%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $110 +$147 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $381 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 29¢ $99 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $136 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 76¢ $263 16h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 40¢ $320 17h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $48 27h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 33¢ $24 28h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 77¢ $262 28h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $77 29h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $133 29h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $305 32h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $93 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $81 32h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 87¢ $522 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 38¢ $31 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $238 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $132 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $126 2d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 41¢ $272 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 33¢ $165 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $24 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $19 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $203 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $54 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $58 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $118 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $229 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $44 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $71 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $59 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $601.63 · official $601.66 (match) · 544 history records