Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:11:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc4a…f757 crypto 621 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate88%546W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$37
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1
other 4% −$3
sports 3% −$1
weather 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -24.1% -31.3% 66% 17% -21.3%
≤30d 621 -1.3% -10.7% 88% 21% -10.1%
≤90d 621 -1.3% -10.7% 88% 21% -10.1%
all 621 -1.3% -10.7% 88% 21% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 21% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 10% -18.7%
15% -27.1% 7% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 5% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses546 / 75
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)621 / 621
History coverage30d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 621 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +58%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $10 −$4 -40%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $21 +$3 +13%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 01 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 01 $4 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $4 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 18m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 27m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 38m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western SELL LGD Gaming 57¢ $6 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1256 history records