Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FC 0xfc4a…4aaa other 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$39 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%45W / 53L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$1
14 days+$11
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$52
sports 31% −$1
other 19% +$1
politics 11% −$15
economics 1% −$3
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 21 -0.7% -10.2% 48% 5% -8.1%
≤90d 36 +51.0% +36.6% 39% 6% -9.2%
all 98 +16.7% +5.6% 46% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 4% -9.2%
10% -4.5% 3% -17.9%
15% -13.7% 2% -25.8%
20% -22.2% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses45 / 53
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage450d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 70¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $111 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $338 +$5 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $53 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $32 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $230 −$4 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $193 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $416 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $420 −$2 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $237 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $124 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $408 +$10 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $435 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $178 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $207 −$2 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $26 −$3 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $203 +$21 +10%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $202 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $2 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $45 +$27 +61%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $15 −$1 -4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $248 −$2 -1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 24 $29 −$11 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $244 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $90 −$4 -5%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $260 −$2 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,042 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $59 −$3 -5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $953 −$4 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $1,907 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $953 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $23 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 10 $12 $0 -2%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 08 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 07 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $23 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $112 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $71 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $111 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $90 7h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $111 15h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $111 19h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $113 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $108 33h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $52 46h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $33 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $222 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $230 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $193 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $85 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $108 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $209 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $137 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $72 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $230 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $230 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $19 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.57 · official $0.00 (match) · 352 history records